Now, many experts emphasize, the adjustment of house price is going, new round go up greatly be about to spread out. And before this, having development business is to emphasize more " the history will prove, house price is forever go up not to drop only " . My viewpoint is: Of Chinese house price drop prelusive ability just is pulled open.
Commodity house clinchs a deal the fall of the quantity, it is the last signal before Chinese house price produces major transition, this looks be like gentle signal, actually, the beginning of an adumbrative new era.
Go to house price of future situation, I make 3 judgement:
One of, drop prelusive just pull open, will have range subsequently bigger drop.
Secondly, dropping will be long-term trend.
Thirdly, the become divided of house price will be more and more apparent, price of house of medium, cheap goods falls a value that will exceed high-grade goods room far drop.
From the point of potential demand, the force of price of house of the China that prop up is very strong it seems that, this one element becomes in order to of group of vested interest be waitinged for by development business to push the important and academic basis of tall house price. But, if consume demand and current commodity house structure actually to look with what purchasing power supports, chinese housing market is sought for be more than actually.
When the building consumes demand namely as living demand, those who decide house price is actual spending ability of the dweller, with the room normally valence and family can control income to express than coming. Be aimed at the feasibility condition of our country, international expert gives out " reasonable housing price " " house value income is compared " for 3 to 6 times, namely the income that a family goes to 3 years 6 years, can buy one ring house. And statistical data shows, shenzhen city was compared with the house value income 2005 2004 is respectively 6.52 times with 9.83 times, 2006 criterion violent wind rises to 15.76 times, to 2007, violent wind rises 20 times above. Go up with international general " house value income is compared " this staff will measure, price of our country house had been head and shoulders above real purchasing power of the people.
When the building regards investment as demand, the force that decides house price is building hire, use normally on international hire carry out to express than coming. Alleged hiring carry out to compare is the lunar hire that shows every make the same score meter of usable floor area and every the ratio between price of house of the floor area that make the same score rice. House property is measured to move to hire carry out goodly to be ∶ of 1 ∶ 200~1 than average level on international 300. And at present the house price of our country is head and shoulders above international cordon. It is with Beijing exemple, its hire carry out to compare basic be in 1 ∶ 500~1:
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